In this article written by one of the presidential spokespersons, Garba Shehu, the Presidency described Goodluck Ebele Jonathan as a losing incumbent president now seeking re-election in the forthcoming 2023 general election.

Garba Shehu in the article tries to explain how those who have predicted military coup and break up for Nigeria have been disappointed.

Excerpts of the presidential statement:

In 2005, a US National Intelligence Council paper “Mapping Sub-Saharan Africa’s Future” floated the idea there could be a military coup in Nigeria. At the time this was hardly an earth-shattering prediction: 2005 was only six years after the return of civilian democratic rule and just over a decade since the Abacha military coup of 1993 – the final of seven coups since independence.

However, for the last 29 years – close to a generation – there have been none. Since the return of democracy in 1999 there have been six general elections, four elected presidents, four transfers of power – including one in 2015 between the winning opposition candidate and the losing incumbent president seeking re-election.

Yet despite all the evidence to the contrary, the collapse predictors keep doubling down on their bets.

Most recently retired former US Ambassador to Nigeria 2004-7 John Campbell has updated his book, of which the first edition said:

“While Nigerians often claim they are masters of dancing on the brink without falling off, the disastrous administration of President Goodluck Jonathan, the radical Islamic insurrection Boko Haram, and escalating violence in the delta and the north may finally provide the impetus that pushes it into the abyss of state failure”.

It didn’t of course, quite the opposite: Jonathan was defeated at the 2015 general election with power peacefully transferring to the victor, President Muhammadu Buhari.

Campbell is always more careful than others who openly claim their predicted collapse is just around the corner. Still, it is always there, as innuendo: “I have never predicted the breakup of Nigeria because I have never thought it would happen. But, were it to do so, the likely consequence would be a humanitarian disaster” – said Campbell in a blog post in 2012 for the US Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) think-tank.

That same CFR is now publishing the new edition of Campbell’s book. – read more here: https://switchngr.com/predicting-nigerias-collapse-is-a-perennial-pursuit-of-us-think-tanks-and-policy-experts/